Apple’s Only Option
Apple is in the midst of making decisions that will set the course for years or even decades to come.
Even though it is standing at a $4 trillion dollar market cap the company looks as if it is somewhat on the back foot. Despite having minimal new product launches, it finds itself growing revenue by double digits and it leads one to wonder, “What comes next?” Is rolling out the latest version of the iPhone/Airpods really going to continue this trajectory?
As a consumer this feels like Hollywood’s tired playbook.
Do what works. Throw in a sequel. Call it a day.
It’s a demeanor that I find very cavalier. The only thing that has been of real interest has been their work with the Apple Vision Pro. The proposition to have court-side seats, immersive experiences, and the ability to change work’s form factor is massive. For that to happen the offering would need to change substantially, otherwise Meta is going to eat their lunch with their smart glasses product. At the end of the day, it’s going to be too expensive for the foreseeable future.
So where is Apple going?
We heard rumors on some sort of vehicle Apple was working on, but it’s pretty clear that ship has sailed. That war already seems to be won, and not even by Tesla. Compared to other tech competitors Apple doesn’t have a lot of places on the body to go without cannabilizing their other product lines.
A year ago they were getting paid $20 billion/year by Google to be the default search engine on Safari. The dumpster fire that is Siri is now costing them $1 billion/year the other way to make sure that they don’t get slaughtered in the AI arena. Is this biding your time in the biggest race of my lifetime or prescient wisdom to determine your next step as a second mover? My instincts say it’s the latter.
How does that picture change as more and more users are siphoned off search and into LLMs?
If Apple is going to survive and grow it is going to have to bide it’s time until costs can come down enough that its vision platform becomes viable. It’s the only form factor that will open a whole new market and remain compatible with their offerings.
Apple products used to mean doing the impossible. They were tangibly different in materials, design, and interface. They pushed the boundaries on what could be done and delivered an experience second to none. Now I am not so sure how it is equipped to differentiate itself from the growing list of competitors that are nipping at its heels.
