Oil Wars
Energy is an interesting subject to me in so far that it is an underlying factor for geopolitics.
The Iran situation is multi layered to be sure, but one thing is for sure- it’s about oil. The Wall Street Journal just reported that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit was just released to the Middle East, and I think it’s pretty apparent what they are going to do. Namely, take Kharg Island and possibly other islands that allow Iran to exert control over the Straight of Hormuz. All this for what reason? You guessed it, to keep the oil flowing.
Despite the success in crippling Iranian military infrastructure the U.S. is seeing other nations turn away from providing aid. More infrastructure, like desalination plants that supply water, around the Middle East are targeted and destroyed by Iranian combatants. Drones fly into buildings and chaos reigns supreme. With all this turmoil, countries tend to not want to get involved thousands of miles away (and less so when there is no off ramp).
This has resulted in a David vs Goliath type battle that has major reputational implications should the U.S. prove incapable of pulling it off.
However, the Ukraine is sending experts to help aid in intercepting the Shahed drones of Iranian combatants, a skill honed through years of drone warfare in the fight against Russia.
Trump was supposed to visit Beijing March 31 for a summit with Xi but pushed it back five or six weeks, ostensibly because of the war but transparently because he wanted to walk in holding leverage.
If the U.S. can force the Strait open, Trump would arrive at the rescheduled summit having demonstrated that America can secure global energy flows unilaterally, that China’s sanctioned oil supply chain is vulnerable, and that Beijing’s strategy of patient neutrality bought it nothing.
Squeeze Venezuela from the west, break Iran’s grip on the Gulf from the east, and suddenly Xi is the one sitting down without leverage.
If the U.S. is able to defeat the Shaheds and open the Straight again the war is pretty much over.
